Express

Comment by David Harris on October 26, 2010 at 2:40pm

The peak for express carriers, particularly UPS and FedEx will really hit in November-December, and I suspect Mr. Kuehn was talking about the ex-Asia peak in general freight (a market UPS is increasingly involved in).

September results are in in from some of the big carriers, but questions about the 2010 peak season will probably remain unanswered until we know what the October numbers look like. The fact that year-over-year growth rates are well down from what they were earlier in the year has been taken by some to mean that traffic levels are declining, as opposed to the normal increase that comes with the fall season peak. In fact, demand stayed relatively constant, but the y-o-y comparisons are becoming more difficult because of the recovery that began late in 2009. IATA’s statistics show that, in terms of RTKs flown, international cargo traffic surged to an all-time record level in March 2010, and remained at about that level through August. Normally mid-year traffic is 5% or more below the March performance, and it doesn’t pick-up until the peak period begins in late September.  This year’s near-record traffic levels in the summer months complicate making predictions about the 2010 peak.  Did the peak come early this year, and if so, why?  Or will the September through November results show further growth form the high plateau that we have been on for several months?  And even if cargo traffic increase in absolute terms to new record levels in the September through November period, the percentage growth compared to the 2010 summer month levels will be smaller than normal.

More worrying than traffic levels though, is yield. And the anecdotal news we're hearing about yields is not good -- at least as far as ex-Asia traffic is concerned. Obviously, with demand increasing rapidly beginning at the end of the third quarter of 2009, carriers began returning parked capacity to service. Obviously, they had to bring some of that capacity back, but the big question is whether they brought back too much. We shall see...

Comment by JJ Hornblass on October 28, 2010 at 12:11pm

News feed on the express carriers added.

Comment